Tipping Points, Abrupt Opinion Changes, and Punctuated Policy Change
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منابع مشابه
Early Warning Signals of Tipping-Points in Blog Posts
Complex systems in a variety of disciplines are punctuated by tipping-points, where the system undergoes an abrupt rapid change of state. Early warning signals of such tipping-points can be detected via a concept called critical slowing down by examining a set of statistical metrics. A method based on critical slowing down is used to examine the sentiment of a localized set of blog posts in the...
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Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases activate a number of feedback processes in the climate system. Scientists warn that some feedbacks can lead to abrupt and irreversible changes in climate dynamics, called tipping points. The threat of tipping points plays a major role in demands for aggressive emission reductions and for limiting warming to 2◦C, as agreed upon in the Copenhagen Accord...
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Greenhouse gas emissions can trigger irreversible regime shifts in the climate system, known as tipping points. Multiple tipping points affect each other’s probability of occurrence (a “domino effect”) and they reinforce each other’s economic impacts. Today’s optimal mitigation policy has to consider all possible future interactions between tipping points, economic activity, and policy response...
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Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small ...
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In the Earth's history, periods of relatively stable climate have often been interrupted by sharp transitions to a contrasting state. One explanation for such events of abrupt change is that they happened when the earth system reached a critical tipping point. However, this remains hard to prove for events in the remote past, and it is even more difficult to predict if and when we might reach a...
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